Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.551379 2.719608 2.899018 3.105581 3.338099 3.593242 3.896472
2025-04-06 2.279610 2.502907 2.753589 3.059163 3.426268 3.859444 4.419290
2025-04-13 2.081940 2.328806 2.615207 2.977810 3.433516 4.000368 4.781774
2025-04-20 1.988237 2.260155 2.584857 3.010278 3.567901 4.297945 5.372656
2025-04-27 1.925798 2.220206 2.580842 3.068225 3.732636 4.646677 6.085295
2025-05-04 1.871899 2.184544 2.576163 3.120321 3.889415 4.998673 6.865528
2025-05-11 1.794606 2.113007 2.518421 3.093566 3.929237 5.180308 7.405530
2025-05-18 1.728466 2.051267 2.468363 3.071361 3.970253 5.364609 7.984412
2025-05-25 1.667257 1.992239 2.417576 3.042856 3.996749 5.525746 8.553786
2025-06-01 1.611441 1.937309 2.368720 3.012592 4.015917 5.674486 9.132264
2025-06-08 1.571731 1.901835 2.344238 3.015389 4.085883 5.917867 9.973800
2025-06-15 1.547079 1.885323 2.344790 3.054657 4.217287 6.289045 11.226209
2025-06-22 1.497360 1.833031 2.292976 3.012063 4.210585 6.405570 11.916371
2025-06-29 1.450273 1.782645 2.241650 2.967059 4.195769 6.504607 12.603251
2025-07-06 1.396917 1.721617 2.172322 2.889676 4.117785 6.465712 12.889940
2025-07-13 1.377856 1.707979 2.171365 2.920537 4.234125 6.846494 14.619815
2025-07-20 1.366601 1.704732 2.185205 2.975596 4.399316 7.363586 17.154382
2025-07-27 1.354395 1.699479 2.195507 3.025064 4.558897 7.902524 20.267591
2025-08-03 1.323938 1.666711 2.162593 2.999662 4.570705 8.089067 22.056425
2025-08-10 1.296216 1.637047 2.133240 2.978574 4.588998 8.295931 24.175486
2025-08-17 1.268499 1.606557 2.101458 2.951495 4.592685 8.466264 26.321406
2025-08-24 1.241760 1.576755 2.069682 2.922736 4.590425 8.621218 28.614406
2025-08-31 1.223593 1.559106 2.056219 2.925394 4.654034 8.973963 32.893246